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首页 > 中国极地考察知识库 > 成果信息库 > 已审查 南极和北极地区变化对全球气候变化的指示和调控作用——第四次IPCC评估报告以来一些新认知

南极和北极地区变化对全球气候变化的指示和调控作用——第四次IPCC评估报告以来一些新认知

【标题】南极和北极地区变化对全球气候变化的指示和调控作用——第四次IPCC评估报告以来一些新认知

【Title】Indication of the Arctic and Antarctic Changes and their regulation to Global Climate Change——New understandings since the Fourth IPCC assessment report

【DOI】10.3724/SP.J.1084.2013.00001

【作者】 陈立奇

【Author】 Chen Liqi

【期刊】极地研究

【Journal】ADVANCES IN POLAR SCIENCE

【期刊年份】2013

【卷】25

【期】1

【关键词】 南极; 北极; 气候变化; IPCC; 指示和调控作用

【Keywords】 the Antarctic; the Arctic; climate change; IPCC; indication and regulation

【摘要】 政府间国际气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)2007年发布了第4次评估报告后,全球气候变化问题再次成为国际社会、科技界和社会公众关注的焦点之一,并迅速成为了一个重要的国际科学和政治议题。 2007年以来,尤其是第4次国际极地年的实施,越来越多的观测和研究事实表明,北极和南极地区正在出现快速地变化着,这些变化也正在从量上到质量变化,当在跨越这种变化的阈门时,可能出现:北冰洋会在2040年前后出现夏季无海冰所引起的北半球大范围的持续暴雪的寒冷冬季;2050年左右南极上空臭氧空洞可能消失并恢复到上世纪80年代水平,南极地区可能会快速升温并引起东南极冰盖和海冰快速融化,使海平面升高加速;极区海水温度快速升高会驱动极区表层海洋和上覆大气之间CO2分压平衡加速,极区海洋也会大量吸收大气CO2,并诱发海水酸化及对极区生态系统产生不可逆的破坏。因此,南极和北极地区的快速变化,正在扮演对全球气候变化的指示和调控作用。

【Abstract】It has concerned by the international scientific and social communities as well as rapidly become important international political issues since the Fourth Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was released in 2007. In addition, more and more new founding has achieved through implementing the Fourth International Polar Years campaign since 2007/08. It is most significant that the Arctic and Antarctic have been suffering rapid changes which might introduce variations from quantity to quality changes in thresholds appear in middle this century. It is proposed that declining Arctic sea ice would impact on winter snowfall in large scale of the Northern Hemisphere and getting more strong when a projection of almost disappeared the Arctic sea ice in summertime along 2040. About 2050, the Antarctic ozone hole will be recovered back to early 1980s’level when the production of Freon was prohibited. Since that, it becomes rapid warmer in Antarctica and East Antarctica and quickly melting of ice sheets and retreating of sea ice. The sea level rising would be a serious issue. When sea surface temperature increase will enhance air-sea exchange rate of CO2, surface water will storage more CO2 in large scale and cause ocean acidification to affect the ecological system. Therefore, the Arctic and Antarctic changes will play a significant role of indication and regulation to Global Climate Change.

【基金/项目】 国家自然科学基金重点项目 ; 南北极环境综合考察与评估专项项目 ; 中美合作印度洋和南大洋碳循环与气候变化再分析研究 ; 国家海洋局极地考察办公室对外合作支持项目 ; 南极周边海域海洋化学与碳通量考察 ; 站基生物生态环境本底考察 ; 北极海域海洋化学与碳通量考察 ; 南大洋N2O源汇格局:驱动机制及其对海洋N2O收支的影响

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