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我国北极航道开拓的战略选择初探

【标题】我国北极航道开拓的战略选择初探

【Title】Strategic thinking on China’s involvement in the development of Arctic sea routes

【作者】 张侠; 杨惠根; 王洛

【Author】 Zhang Xia ; Yang Huigen ; Wang Luo

【期刊】极地研究

【Journal】

【期刊年份】2016

【卷】28

【期】2

【关键词】 海冰; 航运条件; 法律环境; 地缘政治; 集装箱运输; 北极航道; 比较

【Keywords】 Arctic Sea Route; sea ice; shipping conditions; law; geopolitics; container shipping; comparison

【摘要】对于我国, 正在发展和形成中的洲际贸易航线——北极航道是当今经济全球化、政治多极化和气候变化大趋势下出现的重大机遇, 也是“一带一路”的重要补充, 具有较高战略价值。根据北极航道当前发展状况, 从开拓北极航道的战略选择角度, 针对航运条件、法律和地缘政治等方面对北极东北航道、西北航道和穿极航道三条不同海运路径做了概括性比较, 以期为北极航道发展的战略选择做一些前期思考。结果表明:(1) 近年来虽然世界贸易和航运业不景气, 但北极航运逆势而上, 呈现扩大化增长趋势, 无强力破冰船引航的商船独立航行时代已初显端倪;(2) 三条北极航道处于不同发展阶段:东北航道发展最快, 散货船和油气轮方式的资源和过境运输已形成小规模的运营业务;西北航道次之, 正在尝试散货船的资源运输;穿极航道过境通行潜力开始受到越来越多关注。三条航道的集装箱过境运输尚处于空白;(3) 针对三条北极航道不同发展阶段和趋势, 结合战略需求, 我国北极航道开拓应采取“用一个, 试一个、探一个”的发展思路, 即:东北航道做实质性的投入;西北航道做尝试性的投入;穿极航道做探索性的投入。投入重点当为我国有较大需求的中-欧和中-美集装箱船过境运输。(4) 科学考察和商业利用是我国北极航道开拓和利用的先导, 鉴于北极航道的不同国际法和地缘政治环境, 作为“一带一路”北线的实施可采取 “对接”和“探索”并行的发展策略。

【Abstract】 The development of Arctic sea routes offers important strategic value for China and represents an extension to the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road (B & R). The Northeast Passage (NEP), Northwest Passage (NWP), and Trans-Polar Passage (TPP) are compared from the viewpoint of shipping conditions, laws, and geopolitics, and preliminary suggestions are made for strategic choices around the utilization of Arctic sea routes. The main findings are as follows: (1) In recent years, although world trade and shipping have declined, Arctic shipping has tended to increase. With the continued decline in Arctic sea ice, the era of independent Arctic navigation is approaching. (2) The three Arctic navigation routes are in different stages of development. The NEP is developing rapidly with a small but stable base of bulk cargo and oil shipping. The NWP is developing slowly with resource-related bulk cargo shipping. Trans-Polar shipping via the TPP is minimal but has attracted increasing attention in recent years. (3) The ideal development strategy for China in terms of Arctic sea routes is to use one, try one, and explore one. There should be substantial investment in the NEP, tentative investment in the NWP, and exploratory investment in the TPP. China–Europe container transport via the Arctic is the most important area of investment. (4) Development and utilization of Arctic navigation routes require scientific investigation and commercial utilization and China should take the approach of integration and exploration to develop and utilize Arctic sea routes.

【基金/项目】 海洋公益性行业科研专项 ; 中国海洋发展研究中心 ; 国家海洋局极地考察办公室

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