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南极数值天气预报应用与研究进展

【标题】南极数值天气预报应用与研究进展

【Title】Application and Research of Numerical Weather Prediction in Antarctic: A Review

【作者】 孙启振; 杨清华; 张林

【Author】 Sun Qizhen ; Yang Qinghua ; Zhang Lin

【期刊】极地研究

【Journal】

【期刊年份】2011

【卷】23

【期】

【关键词】 综述

【Keywords】 review

【摘要】多个业务化的全球预报模式和有限区域预报模式应用于南极地区,已经成为南极天气预报和南极气候诊断研究的主要工具。现今南极地区的数值天气预报模式在模拟南极大气环流和天气系统方面性能不够理想,原因是多方面的:南极天气气候的特殊性(包括边界层的参数化、中尺度气旋等)、模式对南极复杂地形的描述不够充分、由于缺乏观测资料而使得模式的初始场不够准确等。然而,近几年来,随着对南极大气环流状况研究的深入、模式分辨率的提高,以及各种形式的气象观测资料的日渐丰富,南极地区的数值天气预报模式有了许多显著的改善。本文在介绍了国外多个应用于南极地区的数值天气预报模式的同时,对利用这些模式进行的南极天气气候的研究工作做了初步的总结,最后给出了多个数值天气预报模式的性能评估与比较的研究进展。

【Abstract】Several operational global and regional numerical weather prediction (NWP) models have been used as the major tools for real-time weather forecast and climate diagnostics studies in Antarctica. The models nowadays have relative poor skill in simulating the broadscale circulation and weather systems of Antarctica. The reasons consist of (1) the particularity of the weather and climate over Antarctica, including the parameterization of the boundary layer and mesoscale cyclones, (2) poor representation of Antarctic topography and surface features, (3) inadequate initial conditions resulting from the sparse observational network. However, owing to the further study of the Antarctic general circulation of atmosphere and higher resolution of models and increasing varied observation data, NWP models for Antarctica have been showing more and more powerful skill in recent years. This paper introduced several NWP models for Antarctica, and summarized the modeling researches of weather and climate over Antarctica, followed by the overview of evaluation and comparison of the NWP models performance.

【基金/项目】 南极下降风观测与数值模拟研究 ; 南极普里兹湾海冰反照率观测和参数化研究

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