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Application of autocorrelation method on ionospheric short-trem ofrecasting in China

【标题】Application of autocorrelation method on ionospheric short-trem ofrecasting in China

【Title】Application of autocorrelation method on ionospheric short-trem ofrecasting in China

【DOI】10.1007/s11434-006-0352-9

【作者】 刘瑞源; 徐中华; 吴健; 张北辰; 胡红桥

【Author】 Liu Ruiyuan ; Xu Zhonghua ; Wu Jian ; Zhang Beichen ; Hu Hongqiao

【期刊】科学通报(英文版)

【Journal】Chinese Science Bulletin

【期刊年份】2006

【卷】51

【期】3

【关键词】 ionosphere; ionospheric forecasting; autocorrelation

【Keywords】 ionosphere; ionospheric forecasting; autocorrelation

【摘要】Adopting the autocorrelation method in the ionospheric short-term forecasting, we put forward a simple and practical forecasting method― the sectional autocorrelation method, that is, for predictions of one hour to four hours ahead the auto- correlation coefficient of RDF with the “iteration” method is selected, for prediction of more than four hours ahead, the autocorrelation coefficient of f0F2 with the “at once” method is used. The prediction precisions have been quantitatively estimated based on the data from Chongqing and Guangzhou Ionosonde Stations. It is shown that the method is much improved for the predictions of one hour to four hours ahead. For the predictions of more than four hours ahead the prediction error reaches a saturation value, which is still lower than that of the “median” method. This new method could also be applied to the short-term forecasting of other ionospheric parameters.

【Abstract】Adopting the autocorrelation method in the ionospheric short-term forecasting, we put forward a simple and practical forecasting method― the sectional autocorrelation method, that is, for predictions of one hour to four hours ahead the auto- correlation coefficient of RDF with the “iteration” method is selected, for prediction of more than four hours ahead, the autocorrelation coefficient of f0F2 with the “at once” method is used. The prediction precisions have been quantitatively estimated based on the data from Chongqing and Guangzhou Ionosonde Stations. It is shown that the method is much improved for the predictions of one hour to four hours ahead. For the predictions of more than four hours ahead the prediction error reaches a saturation value, which is still lower than that of the “median” method. This new method could also be applied to the short-term forecasting of other ionospheric parameters.

【基金/项目】 863-703-105 ; 51486010104QT8901 ; 空间灾害性扰动事件对卫星和通信系统影响的研究

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